TL;DR
Martin Alderson draws parallels between the long decline of travel agents and the rapid changes hitting software engineering today. He argues that widespread LLM adoption and improved agentic tooling mean developers have far less time to adapt than travel agents did.
What happened
A retrospective look at the travel-agent sector is used to warn software engineers about a fast-moving disruption. US travel-agent employment and storefronts shrank dramatically over roughly a decade following structural shocks such as a steep commission cut in 1995; some segments survived by moving upmarket. Alderson compares that history to the current software market, noting a roughly $150 billion fall in US VC funding and many engineering roles not being refilled. LLMs and agentic coding tools have reached broad consumer and developer adoption very quickly — the piece cites LLM use by more than 40% of the US population and Stack Overflow survey data showing developer LLM adoption rising from 0% in 2022 to 84% in 2025. New agentic systems (cited examples: METR metrics and an “Opus 4.5” model) are already performing complex engineering tasks, prompting the author to advise engineers to move toward domain expertise and cross‑stack ownership.
Why it matters
- Rapid LLM adoption could commoditise routine coding tasks far faster than past tech shifts did for travel agents.
- Engineers who only translate requirements into code face greater risk than those with domain and systems knowledge.
- Companies are already hiring more cautiously; that could accelerate role contraction if productivity per engineer rises.
- Those who adopt agentic tooling may increase output and shift the value proposition toward higher‑level problem solving.
Key facts
- US travel agents fell from 132,000 to 74,000; retail locations declined from 34,000 to 13,000 (source figures cited).
- Total travel-agent jobs were reported as down about 70% by 2021 in the source.
- In 1995 US airlines sharply cut commissions, which previously represented about 60% of an average travel agent’s revenue, according to the article.
- Retail travel establishments declined by 59% between 1997 and 2013, from nearly 23,000 to under 10,000.
- Between 2000 and 2020 roughly 58,000 to 64,000 travel agents exited the profession entirely, per the source.
- Some travel niches grew: corporate travel management companies expanded, cruises remained mostly offline (about 75%), and luxury travel businesses like Virtuoso saw large percentage gains (Virtuoso cited as up 211%).
- The author notes a roughly $150 billion decline in US venture capital funding as context for hiring slowdowns.
- The piece states we are about 2.5 years past the release of GPT-4 and that LLM usage exceeds 40% of the US population.
- Stack Overflow survey data is cited showing developer LLM adoption rising from 0% in 2022 to 84% in 2025.
- Author reports improved agent success rates from METR and says Opus 4.5 can complete complex engineering tasks far faster than expected.
What to watch next
- Whether employers continue to leave open engineering roles unfilled or reduce hiring as a sustained trend.
- Adoption of agentic tooling inside engineering teams and how quickly it raises per‑engineer productivity.
- The emergence of 'upmarket' roles that require domain knowledge and cross‑stack ownership rather than narrow coding tasks.
- not confirmed in the source: whether LLM agents will reach a definitive 'superhuman' level across speed and quality in 2026.
Quick glossary
- Large Language Model (LLM): A type of AI trained on large text datasets to generate natural language and perform tasks like code generation, summarization, and question answering.
- Online Travel Agency (OTA): A website or app that sells travel products directly to consumers, automating tasks previously handled by retail travel agents.
- Travel Management Company (TMC): A company that arranges and manages travel programs for organizations, often handling large‑volume corporate bookings.
- Venture Capital (VC): Private equity investment provided to startups and growth companies, often influencing hiring and product investment cycles.
- Agentic tooling: Software that coordinates automated agents or AI assistants to perform multi‑step tasks with limited human oversight.
Reader FAQ
Are developers going to be replaced the same way travel agents were?
The source cautions that many routine coding tasks are at risk as agentic tooling improves, but it does not claim a definitive, universal replacement.
What can engineers do to reduce risk?
The article recommends moving upmarket: build domain knowledge, own end‑to‑end problems, and broaden skills across the stack.
Do we have a decade to adapt like travel agents did?
No — the author argues developers have far less time, noting the rapid pace of LLM adoption versus the slower internet‑era shift for travel agents.
Are there areas that will still grow?
Yes; the source cites growth in corporate travel management, certain niche and luxury travel segments, and roles that handle complexity and packaged services.
Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in. December 27, 2025 · Martin Alderson Travel agents are the go-to example of an industry killed by the…
Sources
- Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in
- The Career Ladder for Software Engineers Is Collapsing
- Goodbye, $165000 Tech Jobs. Student Coders Seek Work …
- Laid-off techies struggle to find jobs with cuts at highest …
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