TL;DR
Research firms warn that memory and storage shortages driven by AI infrastructure demand will constrict PC shipments in 2026. Vendors face rising component costs and are prioritizing higher-margin SKUs while negotiating for limited DRAM and HBM supplies.
What happened
Market research from Omdia and commentary from industry observers indicate that memory and storage supplies tightened through 2025 and are expected to limit PC shipments in 2026. Mainstream PC memory and storage costs rose sharply—Omdia put increases between Q1 and Q4 2025 at roughly 40% to 70%—and PC vendors signalled they would pass higher costs to customers or ship devices with reduced memory. Memory chipmakers have shifted capacity toward higher-margin server DRAM and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) used in AI servers and accelerators, leaving less mainstream DDR available for laptops and desktops. Omdia notes manufacturers are prioritising high-end configurations and slimming mid- and low-tier offerings to protect margins. Taiwanese researcher TrendForce has trimmed its laptop shipment forecast for 2026 by about 5.4% to an estimated 173 million units. Industry observers say the outcome will depend heavily on vendors’ procurement strength and relationships with suppliers.
Why it matters
- Rising memory prices can push up PC retail prices or reduce out-of-box performance if vendors cut memory to control costs.
- Allocation of wafer capacity to AI-focused memory reduces supply for mainstream consumer systems, potentially constraining shipment volumes.
- Smaller vendors or those with weaker supplier relationships may struggle to secure scarce memory, intensifying competition and price pressure.
- High component costs could slow upgrades to newer operating systems that have higher hardware requirements, affecting platform migration rates.
Key facts
- Omdia reported mainstream PC memory and storage costs increased about 40%–70% between Q1 and Q4 2025.
- Chipmakers are reallocating manufacturing capacity from mainstream DDR to server DRAM and HBM for AI infrastructure.
- PC vendors in December 2025 warned of 'unprecedented cost increases' and planned to increase product prices or ship lower-memory configurations.
- Omdia says vendors are emphasising high-end SKUs and leaner mid- to low-tier configurations to protect margins amid tight supply.
- TrendForce revised its global laptop shipment projection for 2026 down by 5.4%, to approximately 173 million units.
- Omdia’s November 2025 poll of B2B channel vendors found 57% still forecast growth for 2026 despite the supply crunch.
- Market share context from 2025: Lenovo led shipments (~just over a quarter), HP ~20%+, Dell ~15%, Apple just under 10%, Asus ~7.2%.
What to watch next
- Trajectories for DRAM, HBM and DDR pricing through 2026 and any easing or further tightening in supply.
- How major PC vendors’ procurement and supplier relationships influence their ability to secure limited memory inventory.
- Configuration choices: whether vendors widely ship lower-memory models or raise prices to preserve performance and margins.
- Windows 11 upgrade momentum and whether high replacement costs slow platform migration (not confirmed in the source).
Quick glossary
- DRAM: Dynamic Random-Access Memory, commonly used as system memory in servers and PCs to store working data temporarily.
- HBM: High Bandwidth Memory, a type of stacked memory with very high data throughput used primarily in accelerators and servers.
- DDR: Double Data Rate memory, the mainstream class of DRAM used in most consumer laptops and desktops.
- SKU: Stock-Keeping Unit, a distinct product configuration or model that manufacturers and retailers use for inventory and pricing.
Reader FAQ
Will PC shipments fall in 2026?
Analysts expect memory shortages to constrain shipments; TrendForce projects laptop shipments down about 5.4% versus 2025.
Why is memory becoming scarce?
Manufacturers have shifted production capacity toward higher-margin server DRAM and HBM for AI infrastructure, reducing mainstream DDR availability.
Will PC prices rise for consumers?
PC vendors signalled they planned to pass on higher component costs, though they may also ship lower-memory configurations to limit price increases.
Will this shortage quickly reverse as manufacturers ramp production?
Analysts noted that the usual boom-bust cycle of memory is unlikely to play out quickly this time, according to the source.
How will desktops be affected?
not confirmed in the source
SYSTEMS PC shipments set to hit the buffers as AI guzzles memory High-margin infrastructure kit takes precedence, leaving laptops and desktops wanting Dan Robinson Mon 12 Jan 2026 // 18:54 UTC Memory shortages will…
Sources
- PC shipments set to hit the buffers as AI guzzles memory
- Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis and the …
- AI memory is sold out, causing an unprecedented surge in …
- Why everything from your phone to your PC may get pricier …
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