TL;DR
Forrester forecasts that AI and automation may remove 6.1% of U.S. roles — roughly 10.4 million jobs — by 2030, describing the shift as structural rather than sudden. The firm also predicts AI will augment about one in five roles by the end of the period and warns of corporate risks from over-automation.
What happened
Analyst firm Forrester, via a blog post from vice president and principal analyst J.P. Gownder, projects that AI and automation could eliminate about 6.1% of U.S. jobs — an estimated 10.4 million positions — by 2030. The firm frames the change as a gradual, structural reallocation of work between 2025 and 2030 rather than an immediate collapse. Forrester contrasts the estimate with the Great Recession’s 8.7 million jobs lost but emphasizes the difference in permanence: jobs lost to AI are treated as structural and lasting. The research anticipates AI will augment roughly 20% of roles by the end of the forecast and notes that many organizations currently lack mature AI applications to substitute for human workers. Forrester flags risks from over-automation, cites corporate examples of reversals, and says generative and agentic AI now account for a larger share of projected automation impacts.
Why it matters
- Scale: a projected removal of 10.4 million roles represents a sizable structural shift in the U.S. labor market.
- Workforce readiness: employers may need to invest in training and reskilling as AI changes job requirements.
- Corporate risk: over-automating can lead to costly reversals, reputational damage, and poorer employee experiences.
- Policy implications: permanent, structural job changes differ from cyclical recession losses and may require different policy responses.
- Decision-making: many current layoffs are financially driven and may use AI as a justification, complicating assessments of technological impact.
Key facts
- Forrester projects a 6.1% reduction in U.S. jobs by 2030, equal to about 10.4 million roles.
- J.P. Gownder, Forrester vice president and principal analyst, authored the blog detailing the forecast.
- The Great Recession saw 8.7 million U.S. jobs lost; Forrester notes the AI-driven losses would be structural rather than cyclical.
- Forrester models the main disruption occurring between 2025 and 2030, describing the overall impact as 'real but modest.'
- By the end of the forecast period, Forrester expects AI to augment approximately one in five jobs.
- Generative and agentic AI now make up half of the projected automation impact, up from 29% in a prior forecast.
- Forrester cites about 1 million U.S. layoffs in 2025, with some attributed to AI-related factors.
- The analysis warns that over-automation can produce costly pullbacks; companies such as Duolingo and Klarna are mentioned as having reversed automation efforts.
- Some enterprise software vendors — including Salesforce, Workday, and ServiceNow — are already incorporating automation that affects workforce tasks.
- Forrester estimates 55% of corporations will regret aggressive automation moves and may quietly rehire people.
What to watch next
- Whether employers follow through on large-scale retraining and upskilling programs to prepare workers for augmented roles.
- The pace of adoption and performance of agentic and generative AI in real-world business applications.
- not confirmed in the source: whether U.S. labor productivity will rise fast enough to enable broader replacement of human roles.
- not confirmed in the source: how public policy and labor markets will adapt to structural job changes driven by AI through 2030.
Quick glossary
- Generative AI (GenAI): AI systems that produce new content such as text, images, or code by learning patterns from existing data.
- Agentic AI: AI tools designed to perform multi-step tasks or make autonomous decisions on behalf of users or systems.
- Automation: The use of technology to perform tasks or processes with reduced human intervention.
- Augmentation: Using technology to enhance or assist human work rather than fully replace it.
- Labor productivity: A measure of economic output per unit of labor input, often considered when evaluating automation's potential to replace workers.
Reader FAQ
Will AI cause an immediate mass unemployment crisis?
Forrester characterizes the effect as a gradual, structural shift rather than an imminent job apocalypse.
How many U.S. jobs does Forrester predict will be affected by 2030?
Forrester estimates a 6.1% reduction, about 10.4 million roles, and expects AI to augment roughly one in five jobs.
Are recent layoffs solely caused by AI?
The source says many layoffs are financially driven and that AI is often cited as a scapegoat; not all cuts are directly due to mature AI deployments.
Should workers retrain for new roles?
Forrester suggests employers may need to invest in staff training as AI changes job tasks, but specifics of programs are not detailed in the source.
Which industries will be hit hardest?
not confirmed in the source
AI + ML AI and automation could erase 10.4 million US roles by 2030 Forrester models slow, structural shift rather than sudden employment collapse Richard Speed Tue 13 Jan 2026 // 17:00 UTC AI-POCALYPSE…
Sources
- AI and automation could erase 10.4 million US roles by 2030
- AI And Automation Will Take 6% Of US Jobs By 2030
- Forrester: AI-Led Job Disruption Will Escalate, While Fears …
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