TL;DR
Internal records obtained by WIRED show US intelligence struggled to corroborate senior administration claims that Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua was a centrally directed terrorist force in the United States. Field and task-force reporting described mostly small, opportunistic criminal activity and flagged major gaps in knowledge about membership, leadership, financing, and weapons access.
What happened
Hundreds of government records reviewed by WIRED and obtained via public-records requests reveal a wide disparity between public statements from the Trump administration and the picture emerging in internal intelligence and law-enforcement files. Senior officials publicly characterized Tren de Aragua (TdA) as an invasion and a foreign-backed terrorist network; the president invoked the Alien Enemies Act in March 2025 and the State Department designated TdA as a foreign terrorist organization in February 2025. By contrast, tasking documents, HIDTA bulletins, Border Patrol assessments, and local threat reports repeatedly identified ‘‘intelligence gaps’’—uncertainties about how many members were in the US, whether domestic cells answered to foreign leadership, and whether the group had access to weapons or bulk-financing. Field-level reporting tended to cast TdA activity as decentralized and profit-driven, involving smash-and-grab thefts, ATM fraud, delivery-app scams, and street-level narcotics sales, rather than coordinated, politically motivated attacks. Disagreement among agencies, and a May 2, 2025 national tasking order to close knowledge gaps, underscored the unsettled analytic picture.
Why it matters
- Policy and enforcement choices were reshaped by a formal terrorist designation despite unresolved intelligence on TdA’s structure and links to foreign state actors.
- Divergent assessments across agencies — notably between CBP and local HIDTA/task-force reporting — risk producing inconsistent operational responses.
- A nationwide intelligence tasking order was issued to address foundational questions about membership, financing, weapons access, and command-and-control.
- Persistent evidence gaps highlight limits in collection resources and intelligence prioritization, according to an ODNI spokesperson quoted in the reporting.
Key facts
- WIRED obtained hundreds of internal records — including intelligence taskings, law-enforcement bulletins, and drug-task-force assessments — detailing uncertainty about TdA.
- The State Department designated Tren de Aragua as a foreign terrorist organization in February 2025, a move that changed policy handling of the group.
- In March 2025 the president invoked the Alien Enemies Act and publicly claimed TdA had ‘‘thousands’’ of members unlawfully in the United States.
- Attorney General Pam Bondi publicly described TdA as organized and tied to the Venezuelan government; internal files show those assertions were not consistently corroborated.
- Border Patrol and CBP products attributed capability and intent to TdA and ranked it highly in some assessments, while also stating there was no known specific, credible threat.
- Multiple HIDTA and regional task-force reports characterized TdA activity in the US as localized and opportunistic, with subsets operating independently and with no identified leadership.
- A May 2, 2025 national intelligence tasking order directed analysts across counterterrorism, cyber, narcotics, and transnational crime to address broad knowledge gaps.
- A classified National Intelligence Council assessment, first reported by The Washington Post, found no evidence TdA was directed by the Venezuelan government.
- An ODNI spokesperson attributed analytic shortfalls in part to the Intelligence Community’s inability to devote collection resources to TdA before it was labeled a terrorist organization.
What to watch next
- Follow-up intelligence products and analytic reporting produced in response to the May 2, 2025 tasking order to see whether knowledge gaps about TdA are closed (not confirmed in the source).
- Whether subsequent law-enforcement investigations or prosecutions establish a single command structure or confirm the decentralized, profit-driven pattern described in HIDTA reports (not confirmed in the source).
- Any formal interagency review addressing the divergence between CBP’s high-threat assessments and regional task-force findings, and whether that review leads to changes in policy or collection priorities (not confirmed in the source).
Quick glossary
- Tren de Aragua (TdA): A Venezuelan criminal organization referenced in reporting; described in various accounts as involved in transnational crime, though its structure and links to state actors are contested in intelligence records.
- Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) designation: A legal classification by the State Department that can change which tools and sanctions the US uses against an entity and can affect interagency priorities.
- HIDTA (High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas): Interagency task forces that coordinate federal, state, and local law-enforcement responses to drug trafficking and related crimes in designated regions.
- Tasking order: A directive issued to intelligence analysts and agencies that assigns priority analytic questions and directs collection or reporting to address identified gaps.
- CBP (Customs and Border Protection): A federal agency charged with border security and immigration enforcement that also produces intelligence and threat assessments related to cross-border criminal activity.
Reader FAQ
Did US intelligence conclude Tren de Aragua was a coordinated terrorist force in the US?
Internal records show major intelligence gaps; many field and task-force reports portrayed TdA activity as decentralized and criminal, not a clearly coordinated terrorist network.
Was TdA formally labeled a terrorist organization?
Yes. The State Department designated Tren de Aragua as a foreign terrorist organization in February 2025, according to the reporting.
Were claims that TdA had thousands of members in the US confirmed?
An internal Border Patrol assessment noted that such figures could not be substantiated and often relied on interview-based estimates rather than confirmed detections.
Did all US agencies agree on the threat level?
No. CBP produced assessments indicating capability and intent and ranked TdA highly in some analyses, while regional HIDTA and local law-enforcement reports characterized TdA activity as street-level and fragmented.
DELL CAMERON RYAN SHAPIRO SECURITY JAN 14, 2026 10:59 AM Trump Warned of a Tren de Aragua ‘Invasion.’ US Intel Told a Different Story Hundreds of records obtained by WIRED…
Sources
- Trump Warned of a Tren de Aragua ‘Invasion.’ US Intel Told a Different Story
- U.S. intelligence memo says Venezuelan government does …
- What is Tren de Aragua and has the group 'invaded' …
- Fact check: Is Tren de Aragua invading the US, as Trump …
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