TL;DR
A widely circulated interpretation of an NVIDIA technical brief claimed a single 1 GW data center could require 500,000 tons of copper. Independent arithmetic and industry commentary indicate that figure is almost certainly a unit/typographical error and that realistic estimates are in the low hundreds of tons per GW.
What happened
A technical brief originating from NVIDIA — first published in May and recently highlighted by Forbes — included a passage stating rack busbars in a single 1 gigawatt data center could need up to half a million tons of copper. That claim spread through research notes and media, contributing to bullish sentiment for copper. Analysts and industry watchers flagged the numbers: standard rack architectures are cited in the brief as using roughly 200 kg of copper per megawatt, which scales to about 200 metric tons for a 1 GW installation. That produces a discrepancy of several thousand times compared with the 500,000-ton figure. Commentators including Thunder Said Energy interpreted the sentence as an unintended units error, arguing the author likely meant half a million pounds (about 226 tons). The episode drew attention to how a single misstatement can ripple into commodity markets and underscored calls for rigorous primary-source checks.
Why it matters
- A large, erroneous headline number can distort short-term commodity markets and investor expectations.
- Unit or transcription errors in technical documents can propagate widely through automated research feeds and media.
- Clarifying real copper demand is critical for planning long-lead mining and permitting timelines.
- Accurate engineering estimates matter for realistic assessments of infrastructure needs in the AI/data-center build-out.
Key facts
- The NVIDIA brief (first published in May) was cited as saying rack busbars in a 1 GW data center could require up to 500,000 tons of copper.
- The same brief states standard rack architectures use about 200 kg of copper per megawatt.
- Using 200 kg/MW, a 1 GW (1,000 MW) facility would need roughly 200,000 kg, equal to about 200 metric tons of copper.
- The gap between ~200 tons and 500,000 tons represents a factor on the order of thousands (the article notes a 2,500x arithmetic discrepancy; an analyst group suggested the intended figure was half a million pounds, claimed to be about 2,200x smaller).
- Half a million pounds converts to roughly 226 metric tons, close to the 200-ton result from the per-megawatt calculation.
- If the 500,000-ton figure were true, one 1 GW data center would consume about 1.7% of annual global copper supply according to the illustrative math in the source.
- Scaling that erroneous number to a 30 GW build-out was claimed to imply the sector could take almost half of annual mined copper — a result driven by the apparent typo rather than engineering reality.
- Thunder Said Energy publicly flagged the probable units error; the Copper Development Association also circulated the larger number, contributing to its spread.
- The source notes copper prices have been rising and warns that headline-driven demand signals risk short-term overreaction; Goldman Sachs had cautioned any copper breakout might be short lived.
What to watch next
- Whether NVIDIA issues a clarification or formal correction about the phrasing/units in the technical brief — not confirmed in the source.
- Short-term copper price movement and whether the market adjusts after further scrutiny of the figures; source notes recent price gains but does not forecast outcomes — not confirmed in the source.
- Responses or clarifications from industry groups that amplified the number (for example, the Copper Development Association) — not confirmed in the source.
Quick glossary
- Busbar: A conductive strip or bar used to distribute electrical power within equipment racks or power systems.
- Metric ton: A unit of mass equal to 1,000 kilograms; commonly used in international commodity measures.
- Gigawatt (GW): A unit of power equal to one billion watts; used to describe large-scale electrical capacity.
- 54 VDC: A direct-current voltage level (54 volts) sometimes referenced in data center power distribution designs.
Reader FAQ
Did NVIDIA make a typo?
Analysts and commentators say a units or transcription error is almost certain and that the brief likely intended pounds rather than tons; an official NVIDIA correction is not confirmed in the source.
Would a 1 GW data center really use 500,000 tons of copper?
No. Using the brief's per-megawatt figure of ~200 kg, a 1 GW facility would total about 200 metric tons, not 500,000.
Could this claim drive a sustained copper rally?
The source warns such headline-driven moves risk short-term overstatement; longer-term structural demand drivers remain a separate consideration.
Is global copper supply already insufficient to meet data center demand?
The source says long lead times for mines make undersupply a real long-term concern, but it also notes that the exaggerated typo is not the basis for immediate shortage claims.
There is a fine line between a structural bull case and a physical impossibility; at least in the media and some overly-enthusiastic analysts. Recently, Forbes dug up a technical paper…
Sources
- The 500k-ton typo: Why data center copper math doesn't add up
- Why data center copper math doesn't add up
- The 500000-ton typo: Why data center copper math doesn't add up
- The Copper Appetite of a 1 GW AI Data CenterIs The Same …
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