TL;DR
A column in The Verge reports that a newly created Polymarket account placed escalating bets that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office, then profited after a US operation on January 3 that the column says included bombing Caracas, the capture of Maduro and his wife, and at least 80 deaths. The piece frames the events as a blend of political spectacle, speculative trading and possible insider knowledge.
What happened
A January 7 column in The Verge recounts a sequence of events starting December 31, when a fresh account on the prediction market Polymarket wagered that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be out of office by the end of January. That initial bet, the column says, was followed by larger stakes. On January 3, the US carried out an operation the column describes as bombing Venezuela’s capital, seizing Maduro and his wife, and causing at least 80 fatalities. The Polymarket account reportedly cashed out afterward and realized nearly $500,000. The column critiques the US administration’s handling of the episode, likening it to spectacle-driven gambling in the attention economy and raising questions about possible insider trading, public messaging from officials, and claims that oil executives were consulted — which the column notes those executives deny. The piece is framed as a policy and ethics critique rather than an investigative legal report.
Why it matters
- Large, late bets on political outcomes tied to real-world military action raise ethical and legal concerns about market manipulation and insider information.
- The reported casualties highlight human cost and escalate the stakes of coupling wartime operations with public spectacle.
- Officials’ public characterization of the operation and alleged consultations with private industry raise questions about transparency in decision-making.
- The episode, as described, underscores how digital platforms and attention-driven incentives can intersect with geopolitics.
Key facts
- On December 31 a new Polymarket account placed a bet that Nicolás Maduro would be out of office by the end of January.
- The initial bet was followed by a series of increasing wagers, according to the column.
- On January 3 the US carried out an operation described in the column as bombing Caracas and capturing Maduro and his wife.
- The column reports at least 80 people were killed in that operation.
- The Polymarket account that placed the wagers reportedly cashed out with nearly $500,000.
- The authors note a photograph of an improvised SCIF at Mar-a-Lago with a blackout curtain open and a large screen displaying an X account.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reported as calling the operation a 'law enforcement' action, per the column.
- The column says President Trump claimed he consulted oil companies about the operation, but that company executives deny having been consulted.
- The writers frame the situation as resembling meme-stock speculation and suggest possible insider trading on Polymarket.
What to watch next
- Whether regulators or law-enforcement agencies open inquiries into the timing of the Polymarket wagers and potential insider trading — not confirmed in the source.
- Official US government statements or investigations clarifying who authorized and planned the January 3 operation — not confirmed in the source.
- Responses from international bodies or foreign governments about the legality and consequences of the operation — not confirmed in the source.
Quick glossary
- Polymarket: A prediction market platform where users place bets on the outcomes of future events.
- Meme stock: A stock that experiences dramatic price moves driven more by social-media attention and retail trading than by fundamentals.
- SCIF: Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility — a secured room used to handle classified information.
- Insider trading: Buying or selling securities or placing bets based on material, nonpublic information, which can be illegal in many jurisdictions.
- Attention economy: An economic model in which human attention is treated as a scarce commodity that companies and actors compete to capture.
Reader FAQ
Who placed the Polymarket bets and profited?
The column says a newly created account placed the initial wagers and later cashed out with nearly $500,000, but it does not identify the account holder by name.
Did the US carry out an operation against Nicolás Maduro?
The Verge column reports that on January 3 the US bombed Caracas and captured Maduro and his wife, and that at least 80 people died, as described in the piece.
Were oil companies involved in planning the operation?
The column states President Trump said he consulted oil executives, while the executives deny being consulted; further confirmation is not provided in the source.
Have authorities opened investigations into the betting activity?
Not confirmed in the source.
POLICY BUSINESS COLUMN Blood for stonks Real people are dead because Donald Trump wanted a spectacle. by Elizabeth Lopatto and Sarah Jeong Jan 7, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC 3 3…
Sources
- Blood for stonks
- There's Compelling Evidence That Someone Connected to …
- How a trader made $410000 betting on US capture of …
- Wall Street's Venezuela winners go beyond Big Oil
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