TL;DR
A surge in demand for memory used in AI data centers has tightened supply of general-purpose DRAM and NAND, pushing prices higher and constraining availability for consumer devices. IDC is holding official forecasts but lays out downside scenarios for smartphones and PCs that could lead to higher prices, slower volume growth, and shifts in market share through 2026.
What happened
In late 2025 the memory sector entered an acute shortage as demand from AI infrastructure outstripped supply and manufacturers reallocated capacity toward high-margin enterprise memory. Major memory suppliers redirected wafer and cleanroom resources to components like high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-capacity DDR5 for AI servers, reducing output of LPDDR and conventional NAND used in smartphones and PCs. The result has been sharp price increases for DRAM and NAND, constrained availability, and channel stocking ahead of further price rises. IDC has not altered its official device forecasts yet but published two downside scenarios for 2026 to illustrate potential impacts: weaker volumes and higher average selling prices in both smartphones and PCs, with more severe outcomes if the supply constraints persist. The shortage is described as more than cyclical — a strategic reallocation of production that could last into 2027 depending on capacity expansion and demand rebalancing.
Why it matters
- AI infrastructure is consuming a disproportionate share of global memory capacity, squeezing supply for consumer devices.
- Higher memory costs will raise device production expenses, pressuring margins and forcing price or spec trade-offs.
- Smaller and low-margin vendors are most at risk; larger OEMs with inventory and supply agreements will likely gain share.
- The shortage could slow device upgrades and extend replacement cycles, altering 2026 sales dynamics for smartphones and PCs.
Key facts
- IDC expects 2026 DRAM supply growth to be about 16% year-on-year.
- IDC expects 2026 NAND supply growth to be about 17% year-on-year.
- Manufacturers cited pivoting to HBM and high-capacity DDR5, reducing LPDDR and conventional NAND output.
- Hyperscalers cited as driving HBM demand include Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon.
- For mid-range smartphones, memory can represent roughly 15–20% of bill of materials; for flagships about 10–15%.
- Smartphone downside scenarios: market could contract 2.9% (moderate) to 5.2% (pessimistic) in 2026.
- Smartphone ASPs could rise 3–5% in a moderate scenario or 6–8% in a pessimistic scenario.
- PC downside scenarios: market could contract 4.9% (moderate) or 8.9% (pessimistic) in 2026.
- PC ASPs could increase 4–6% in a moderate scenario or 6–8% in a pessimistic scenario.
- PC vendors (Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer and ASUS) have warned of 15–20% price hikes and contract resets.
What to watch next
- How quickly memory manufacturers can expand wafer and cleanroom capacity to rebalance consumer and AI demand.
- Whether hyperscalers' procurement priorities and long-term supply agreements continue to favor HBM over consumer memory.
- The duration of elevated DRAM and NAND prices and the resulting effect on device ASPs and replacement cycles.
Quick glossary
- DRAM: Dynamic Random-Access Memory — volatile memory used for system RAM in PCs, smartphones and servers.
- NAND/SSD: Non-volatile flash memory used for solid-state storage in phones, laptops and data center storage systems.
- HBM: High-Bandwidth Memory — a stacked DRAM format optimized for high-performance computing and AI accelerators.
- ASP: Average Selling Price — the average price at which a product category is sold over a period of time.
- Hyperscaler: A very large cloud service provider that operates massive data-center infrastructure and buys components at scale.
Reader FAQ
Has IDC changed its official smartphone and PC forecasts due to the shortage?
IDC is maintaining its official forecasts but published moderate and pessimistic downside scenarios to illustrate potential impacts.
Which companies are reallocating production toward AI memory?
IDC identifies Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology as the three biggest memory makers shifting capacity toward enterprise-grade components.
Will consumers see higher prices next year?
IDC projects smartphone and PC average selling prices could rise under both moderate and pessimistic scenarios; the magnitude depends on how long shortages last.
Are smaller vendors more exposed to the shortage?
Yes — vendors with thin margins and less buying leverage are likely to be hit hardest, while larger OEMs with inventory and long-term agreements are better positioned.
In late 2025, the global semiconductor ecosystem is experiencing an unprecedented memory chip shortage with knock-on effects for the device manufacturers and end users that could persist well into 2027. DRAM prices have surged significantly as demand from AI data centers continues…
Sources
- Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis
- Smartphone And PC Prices Set To Surge As Memory …
- Global RAM Shortage Will Raise Smartphone Prices in …
- The AI-fueled chip shortage could raise smartphone prices
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