TL;DR
Good Judgment Open is a public forecasting platform run by Good Judgment that invites participants to predict political, economic and technological events. The site hosts sponsored challenges from organizations such as UBS Asset Management, The Economist and Harvard Kennedy School, and offers tools and featured questions for users to practice and compare forecasts.
What happened
Good Judgment Open, operated by forecasting firm Good Judgment, presents an open platform where members of the public can sign up to make probability-based forecasts on major political, economic and technological questions. The site highlights active challenges, featured questions and an unfiltered list of open forecasting problems; sponsors listed on the platform include UBS Asset Management, The Economist and Harvard Kennedy School. The homepage shows sample featured questions with current crowd probabilities — for example, a 27% forecast that U.S. federal government spending will be below $6.25 trillion in fiscal 2027 and a 0% forecast that Taylor Swift's album will be #1 for 12 or more consecutive weeks starting its first week. Good Judgment Open is tied to Good Judgment’s commercial forecasting services, and the firm cites co-founder Philip Tetlock, author of a book on crowd-sourced forecasting. The site provides sign-up and sign-in options along with commenting and publishing features for participants.
Why it matters
- Crowd-sourced forecasting aggregates diverse judgements to produce probabilistic predictions that can inform planning.
- Organizations across finance, media and academia are sponsoring questions, indicating interest in systematic foresight.
- The platform offers a public training ground for people to develop forecasting skills and compare performance with others.
- Results and leaderboards from open forecasting challenges can provide transparency about collective expectations for future events.
Key facts
- Good Judgment Open is owned and operated by Good Judgment, a forecasting services firm.
- The platform invites public participation in forecasting political, economic and technological events.
- Sponsors named on the site include UBS Asset Management, The Economist and Harvard Kennedy School.
- Featured questions on the homepage include forecasts about U.S. federal spending in FY2027, LLM rankings in Chatbot Arena, and a Billboard chart outcome for Taylor Swift.
- An example forecast shown: 27% chance that U.S. federal government spending will total less than $6.25 trillion in FY2027.
- The site promotes the concept of becoming a Superforecaster® and references Philip Tetlock, a co-founder of Good Judgment.
- Users can sign up or sign in and participate in active challenges; the site also shows commenting and publishing tools.
What to watch next
- Outcomes of featured questions such as the FY2027 U.S. federal spending total and leaderboard results for the Chatbot Arena LLM ranking.
- Updates from sponsored challenges run in partnership with institutions like UBS Asset Management, The Economist and Harvard Kennedy School.
- not confirmed in the source
Quick glossary
- Good Judgment Open: A public, web-based platform where participants make probabilistic forecasts on future events; operated by forecasting firm Good Judgment.
- Superforecaster®: A label used for individuals with demonstrated skill at making accurate probabilistic forecasts; promoted on forecasting platforms and in academic literature.
- Crowd-sourced forecasting: A method that combines probabilistic predictions from a group of individuals to produce a collective estimate of future outcomes.
- Large language model (LLM): A class of machine learning models trained on large text datasets to generate or analyze natural language; often used in chatbots and AI systems.
- Chatbot Arena: A ranking or evaluation environment mentioned on the site where LLMs are compared; referenced as the former LMSYS Org.
Reader FAQ
Who runs Good Judgment Open?
Good Judgment Open is owned and operated by Good Judgment, a forecasting services firm.
How can I participate?
Users can sign up or sign in on the site to take part in active forecasting challenges.
Which organizations sponsor challenges?
The site lists sponsors including UBS Asset Management, The Economist and Harvard Kennedy School.
Is participation paid or are forecasts binding?
not confirmed in the source
Welcome to Good Judgment® Open Are you a Superforecaster®? Join the internet's smartest crowd. Improve your forecasting skills and find out how you stack up. Forecasting challenge sponsors — including,…
Sources
- Good Judgment Open
- Good Judgment® Open
- Develop Your In-House Forecasting Talent with GJ Open
- Fundamentals-Focused Online Training For Forecasters
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