TL;DR
IDC warns that elevated memory prices and constrained supply may persist into late 2027, forcing higher device costs and weaker PC configurations. A severe scenario could cut 2026 shipments by roughly 9%, bringing volumes close to 2016 and 2023 levels.
What happened
Research firm IDC says a prolonged memory supply crunch is likely to keep memory costs elevated through late 2027, a development industry contacts raised during conversations at CES. The PC market rebounded in 2025 as vendors shipped 284.7 million devices—helped by Windows 10 end-of-support and pre-emptive inventory build-up—with Q4 alone at 76.4 million units, up 9.6% year over year. IDC had earlier modeled 2026 declines between about 2.4% and 4.9% versus 2025, but the firm now says a persistent memory shortage could drive a worse outcome: roughly a 9% fall to about 260 million units. That level would be similar to shipment totals seen in 2023 and 2016. Manufacturers are expected to release costlier devices with leaner specs; vendors and analysts say the shortage affects DRAM, NAND, hard drives and advanced semiconductor nodes, and will advantage large OEMs with strong supplier relationships while squeezing smaller players.
Why it matters
- Sustained high memory prices will raise finished-device costs, reducing consumer and enterprise demand.
- Manufacturers may ship PCs with lower memory and fewer features, altering the baseline for AI-capable systems.
- A substantial shipment drop would roll back the market to pre-pandemic volumes, reversing the 2025 rebound.
- Larger OEMs with deep supplier ties may weather the squeeze better than smaller vendors, reshaping vendor competitiveness.
Key facts
- IDC said memory price pressures could continue until late 2027.
- Worldwide PC shipments reached 284.7 million units in 2025, a full-year increase of 8.1%.
- Q4 2025 shipments were 76.4 million devices, up 9.6% year over year.
- IDC's pre-shortage 2026 projection ranged from a 2.4% decline to a 4.9% downside scenario; a severe memory crunch could push the drop to about 9%.
- A 9% decline would reduce 2026 shipments to roughly 260 million units—close to 2023 and 2016 totals.
- Vendors reported stockpiling inventory ahead of the shortage, a factor in 2025's strong results.
- OEM executives warned the shortage affects DRAM, NAND, hard drives and leading-edge semiconductor nodes.
- Large OEMs (Dell, HP, Lenovo, Apple) are expected to be better insulated; smaller brands such as Acer, Asus and MSI face greater risk of market pressure.
What to watch next
- Whether memory price moves shift from rising to merely stable by late 2027, as IDC contacts suggested.
- Announcements from major OEMs about pricing and configuration strategies for 2026 models.
- The extent to which vendors market 'AI PCs' with smaller on-device memory and greater cloud dependency.
- not confirmed in the source: any government or industry interventions to expand memory production capacity and timelines for such actions.
Quick glossary
- DRAM: Dynamic Random-Access Memory, a type of volatile memory used for system RAM in PCs and servers.
- NAND: A class of non-volatile flash memory commonly used for SSDs and other storage devices.
- AI PC: A personal computer marketed with capabilities to run artificial intelligence workloads, which may involve on-device or cloud-assisted processing.
- Inventory stockpiling: When manufacturers buy and hold more components or finished goods than usual to hedge against anticipated supply disruptions.
- Semiconductor nodes: Manufacturing process generations used to describe the scale and technology level of fabricated chips; leading-edge nodes refer to the most advanced processes.
Reader FAQ
How long could memory prices stay high?
IDC sources indicate elevated memory costs could persist until late 2027.
Could PC shipments fall back to pre-pandemic levels?
IDC says a worst-case scenario for 2026 (about a 9% decline) would lower shipments to roughly 260 million units, near 2016 and 2023 totals.
Will PCs labeled as 'AI PCs' have less RAM?
According to IDC commentary, some AI-branded systems may ship with under 16 GB of RAM and rely more on cloud-assisted AI processing.
Which vendors are most at risk from the shortage?
Large OEMs with strong supplier ties are better placed to cope; smaller brands such as Acer, Asus and MSI face greater competitive pressure, per IDC.
Will governments step in to boost memory supply?
not confirmed in the source
SYSTEMS Memory shortage could push PC shipments to pre-pandemic lows Could be back to 2016 levels O'Ryan Johnson Tue 13 Jan 2026 // 22:55 UTC The rising cost of memory due to shortages is…
Sources
- Memory shortage could push PC shipments to pre-pandemic lows
- Memory shortages could hit PC shipments in 2026 .. …
- Memory Shortage Fears Drive Surge in Q4 PC Shipments …
- Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis and the …
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