TL;DR
A set of quantified predictions for the open social web in 2026, grouped by likelihood: mild (very likely), medium (plausible), and spicy (risky). Key bets include user-growth targets for Bluesky and ActivityPub-fed platforms, Threads remaining the largest ActivityPub-adjacent platform but keeping partial federation, and several infrastructure, standards, and policy shifts to watch.
What happened
The author published a set of numbered, time-bound predictions for 2026 focused on the open social web. The list is organized into three risk tiers: 'Mild' for likely outcomes, 'Medium-Spicey' for plausible developments, and 'Spicy' for riskier bets. Among the firmest forecasts are Bluesky reaching 60 million registered users, the ActivityPub Fediverse exceeding 15 million registered users with MAU plateauing around 2–3 million (excluding Threads), and Threads surpassing 500 million monthly active users while keeping federation opt-in and partial. The author also highlights specific product and ecosystem developments: Ghost and WordPress federated accounts growing noticeably; BridgyFed and Fedify shifting interoperability and federation practices; the possibility of independent ATProto implementations becoming viable; Mastodon gGmbH meeting sustainability targets; Bluesky raising another funding round and disclosing non-ad-based business plans; and an ATProto effort moving toward formal IETF work. A range of bolder outcomes — from major publishers federating to three-way protocol bridging and new regulatory pushes — are flagged as riskier but possible.
Why it matters
- Quantified user and adoption targets set clear expectations for where pick-up of open protocols could meaningfully affect mainstream social distribution.
- Predicted infrastructure and standards moves (ATProto IETF work, Fediscovery, independent PDS stacks) would change how platforms interoperate and scale.
- Shifts in business models and funding for BlueSky and Mastodon-affiliated organizations could determine whether open social projects reach sustainability.
- Possible policy changes and institutional adoption (publishers, governments) could accelerate interoperability and prompt broader industry responses.
Key facts
- Bluesky is predicted to reach 60 million registered users in 2026.
- The ActivityPub Fediverse (excluding Threads) is forecast to cross 15 million registered users, with monthly active users plateauing around 2–3 million.
- Threads is expected to exceed 500 million monthly active users while maintaining partial, opt-in federation through 2026.
- Ghost integration with ActivityPub is projected to add 75,000+ federated accounts, and Ghost is predicted to finish 2026 in the Fediverse top 10 by MAU.
- WordPress-based federated accounts are forecast to exceed 50,000 (measured by FediDB) by year end.
- BridgyFed may move to an opt-out model for Bluesky bridging to ActivityPub, normalizing cross-protocol interoperability.
- At least one independent ATProto stack (PDS, Relay, AppView) is predicted to reach viability outside Bluesky PBC infrastructure.
- Mastodon gGmbH is expected to hit sustainability milestones, boost hosting revenue, and accelerate development in 2026.
- Bluesky PBC is predicted to raise another funding round and announce a non-advertising business model in 2026.
- An ATProto standards effort is forecast to advance from Internet Drafts toward an IETF Working Group in 2026.
What to watch next
- Whether Bluesky secures a new funding round and announces concrete non-advertising revenue plans.
- Progress on Fediscovery shipping in a stable Mastodon release and the availability of production-ready discovery providers.
- Movement of ATProto from draft specifications to a formal IETF Working Group and related independent implementations.
- The development of bridging services (BridgyFed or others) enabling Nostr ↔ ATProto ↔ ActivityPub interoperability — not confirmed in the source.
Quick glossary
- ActivityPub: An open, decentralized social networking protocol that enables different servers to share posts, follows, and interactions across a federated network.
- Fediverse: A network of federated servers that use compatible protocols like ActivityPub to allow users on different instances to interact.
- ATProto: A protocol for decentralized social networking associated with Bluesky, intended to govern identity, feeds, and federation between implementations.
- Bridging: Technical and service approaches that connect different social protocols or platforms so content and interactions can flow across them.
Reader FAQ
Who authored these predictions?
not confirmed in the source
Are these outcomes confirmed or already happened?
No — the piece is a set of forward-looking predictions for 2026.
Will Threads fully federate in 2026?
The author predicts that full two-way federation will not ship in 2026; partial opt-in federation will continue.
Is ATProto expected to become an IETF Working Group?
The author forecasts ATProto advancing from Internet Drafts to an IETF Working Group in 2026, but this is a prediction, not a confirmed outcome.
My 2026 Open Social Web Predictions December 23, 2025 9:50am Reading Time: 7 minutes Social Media I just finished reviewing my 2025 predictions (how do you think I did grading…
Sources
- My 2026 Open Social Web Predictions
- My 2025 Open Social Web Prediction Score Card
- Decentralized social media: platforms, users, stats
- 2026 Social Media Planning Guide: Threads, Bluesky, and …
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