TL;DR
Counterpoint Research has trimmed its 2026 smartphone shipment forecast to a 2.1% decline as DRAM and NAND supply tightens and memory prices climb. Higher memory costs are driving up bills of materials, hitting budget models hardest and nudging more consumers toward refurbished and secondhand phones.
What happened
Analysts at Counterpoint Research have downgraded their 2026 smartphone shipment outlook, now projecting a 2.1% decline and noting a 2.6 percentage-point downward revision from earlier estimates. The firm cites a tightening of DRAM and NAND supply as memory makers prioritize higher‑margin AI and datacenter customers, leaving handset makers to compete with hyperscalers and GPU vendors for capacity. Memory prices may rise further—Counterpoint projects up to about a 40% increase through the second quarter of 2026—pushing smartphone bills of materials roughly 8% to more than 15% above current levels. Market watchers also report Samsung may raise some memory prices by as much as 100%. Counterpoint warns that low‑end devices (under $200) have seen BOM increases of 20–30% since the start of the year, with mid and high tiers up 10–15%, and that stretched replacement cycles (now over 40 months on average) and underwhelming on‑device AI features limit consumers' willingness to absorb higher prices.
Why it matters
- Rising memory costs could erode profit margins for handset makers and force higher retail prices.
- Budget and midrange phones stand to be hit hardest, potentially slowing purchases by cost‑sensitive buyers.
- Longer replacement cycles and modest perceived upgrades make consumers less willing to pay more.
- Growth in refurbished and secondhand demand may accelerate if new‑phone prices climb.
- Wider semiconductor allocation toward AI/datacenter customers could reshape supply priorities across the industry.
Key facts
- Counterpoint Research revised its 2026 smartphone shipment forecast to a 2.1% decline.
- The firm said this represents a 2.6 percentage‑point downward revision versus earlier estimates.
- Memory prices could increase by about 40% through Q2 2026, according to Counterpoint.
- Some market watchers reported Samsung plans to raise certain memory prices by up to 100%.
- Smartphone bills of materials are projected to rise between about 8% and more than 15% from current levels.
- Low‑end phones (below $200) have seen BOM increases of roughly 20–30% since the start of the year; mid and high tiers up 10–15%.
- Replacement cycles have stretched beyond 40 months on average, reducing upgrade frequency.
- DRAM and NAND supply is tightening as manufacturers prioritize higher‑margin AI and datacenter products.
- Chinese OEMs including HONOR, OPPO, and Vivo are expected to face the largest shipment cuts relative to prior estimates.
- Demand for refurbished and secondhand smartphones is rising as consumers seek cheaper alternatives.
What to watch next
- Trajectory of memory prices through Q2 2026 and any supplier announcements on price increases.
- OEM responses: adjustments to device pricing, configurations, or shipment guidance.
- Trends in replacement cycles and secondhand/refurbished market growth as consumers react to price changes.
- not confirmed in the source
Quick glossary
- DRAM: Dynamic Random‑Access Memory, a type of volatile memory used for working memory in devices and servers.
- NAND: A form of non‑volatile flash memory commonly used for device storage like phones and SSDs.
- Bill of Materials (BoM): The total cost of components and parts that go into producing a hardware device.
- AI phone: A smartphone marketed with on‑device artificial intelligence features intended to enhance user experience.
- Hyperscaler: A large cloud provider that operates at massive scale and often consumes substantial compute and memory capacity.
Reader FAQ
Did analysts cut the smartphone growth outlook?
Yes. Counterpoint Research reduced its 2026 shipment forecast to a 2.1% decline, a 2.6 percentage‑point downgrade from earlier estimates.
Will phone prices rise because of memory costs?
Counterpoint says rising DRAM and NAND prices could push bills of materials up about 8% to over 15%, which would put pressure on retail pricing and margins.
Are AI phones fixing demand problems?
Not according to the source: most marketed AI phone features so far are modest and have not materially changed buying behavior.
Which manufacturers will be most affected?
Counterpoint expects Chinese OEMs such as HONOR, OPPO, and Vivo to see the largest relative impacts; broader effects will vary by region and price tier.
Are consumers trading in more devices?
Demand for refurbished and secondhand smartphones is rising, as buyers seek lower‑cost alternatives when new phone prices increase.
PERSONAL TECH 27 Smartphones face a memory cost crunch – and buyers aren't in the mood Rising DRAM and NAND prices are squeezing handset makers and threatening a fragile market…
Sources
- Smartphones face a memory cost crunch – and buyers aren't in the mood
- Rising memory costs are about to test buyers' patience
- Smartphone And PC Prices Set To Surge As Memory …
- DRAM and NAND spike 100%+: triggering 2025's toughest …
Related posts
- Oracle hikes FY2026 AI-related capex outlook, sending shares sharply lower
- Oracle adds A4 Ampere-based OCI instances with up to 96 cores after divestment
- Micron warns memory shortages will persist as AI demand outstrips supply