TL;DR
TrendForce lowered its 2026 global notebook shipment forecast to about 173 million units, a 5.4% decline from 2025, citing rising memory costs and weak consumer demand. The research firm says Apple is relatively less exposed thanks to supply-chain integration, procurement scale and pricing power, and may benefit from a reported low-cost MacBook in spring 2026.
What happened
Market research firm TrendForce has cut its projection for global notebook shipments in 2026 to roughly 173 million units, representing a 5.4% year-over-year decline. The revision reflects a combination of tepid economic recovery, cautious consumer spending and sharply higher memory prices that squeeze manufacturers’ margins and reduce pricing flexibility. Brands are expected to take a more conservative approach to inventory, promotions and product setups as a result. TrendForce adds that if memory supply issues do not improve, the shipment drop could deepen to as much as 10.1% in 2026. The report highlights Apple as comparatively better positioned: an integrated supply chain, steady procurement volumes, predictable demand planning and pricing power should help Apple secure priority from memory suppliers. TrendForce also says Apple could gain from scale and supply-chain efficiencies when it introduces a reported low-cost MacBook in spring 2026. Finally, the firm expects LCD panel shipments to fall about 7.9% year over year, while OLED panel shipments continue to grow but at a slower rate.
Why it matters
- Rising memory prices are compressing OEM margins and limiting price-cut options, which could reduce discounts and slow unit demand.
- A weaker overall notebook market may prompt manufacturers to tighten inventory and postpone aggressive promotions.
- Apple’s procurement scale and integrated supply chain may allow it to secure components ahead of rivals, affecting competitive dynamics.
- Shifts in panel demand (LCD down, OLED growing) could influence component sourcing and product positioning across brands.
Key facts
- TrendForce revised its 2026 global notebook shipment forecast to about 173 million units.
- The new projection represents a 5.4% year-over-year decline compared with 2025.
- If memory constraints persist, TrendForce warned shipments could fall by up to 10.1% in 2026.
- Surging memory prices are cited as a primary factor squeezing profit margins and pricing freedom for notebook makers.
- TrendForce says Apple is less exposed due to an integrated supply chain, pricing power and large, steady procurement volumes.
- The report notes Apple’s clear product schedule and predictable demand planning help secure priority cooperation with memory suppliers.
- TrendForce expects Apple to benefit from supply-chain efficiencies and scale when it introduces a reported low-cost MacBook in spring 2026.
- LCD panel shipments are forecast to decline about 7.9% year over year in 2026, while OLED shipments should continue to grow at a slower pace.
What to watch next
- Trajectory of global memory prices and whether supply constraints ease or worsen.
- Confirmation and details of the reported low-cost MacBook launch timing and specs (not confirmed in the source).
- Actual quarterly shipment figures from major notebook vendors versus TrendForce’s revised forecast.
- Panel market mix shifts between LCD declines and OLED growth and how vendors respond.
Quick glossary
- Memory (DRAM/NAND): Semiconductor components used to store data in computers; price and availability can materially affect device costs and margins.
- Supply chain integration: A company’s control or coordination across suppliers, manufacturing and logistics that can affect cost, timing and resilience.
- Shipments: Units of a product shipped from manufacturers to distributors or retailers, commonly used as a proxy for market demand.
- LCD vs OLED: Two types of display technologies: LCD uses backlighting for pixels; OLED produces light per pixel and generally offers higher contrast.
- Procurement volume: The quantity of components a company purchases from suppliers, which can affect its leverage and access to constrained parts.
Reader FAQ
What did TrendForce forecast for 2026 notebook shipments?
About 173 million units, a 5.4% decline versus 2025.
Why are shipments expected to fall?
TrendForce attributes the downgrade to a sluggish economic recovery, cautious consumer spending and rising memory prices squeezing margins.
Is Apple insulated from these pressures?
TrendForce says Apple is less exposed due to integrated supply-chain advantages, pricing power and steady procurement, per the report.
Will Apple definitely launch a low-cost MacBook in spring 2026?
Not confirmed in the source.
iOS 26 has three new iPhone features I’ve been really loving Ryan Christoffel Dec 29 2025 MACBOOK TRENDFORCE Apple better positioned than rivals as 2026 notebook shipments face decline: report…
Sources
- Apple better positioned than rivals as 2026 notebook shipments face decline: report
- Revises Down 2026 Global Notebook Shipments to a 5.4% …
- TrendForce Predicts Decrease in Global Notebook …
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