TL;DR
A Brookings Institution analysis finds the U.S. experienced negative net migration in 2025, driven mainly by a sharp fall in entries and heightened enforcement. The study estimates removals between 310,000 and 315,000 and warns the trend—and economic fallout—could continue into 2026.
What happened
A Brookings Institution report released in January 2026 concludes that the United States recorded negative net migration in 2025 for the first time in at least five decades. The authors estimate annual net flows between -295,000 and -10,000, attributing the shift largely to a large decline in arrivals combined with stepped-up enforcement leading to removals and voluntary departures. The study puts 2025 removals at roughly 310,000–315,000, a figure substantially lower than the Department of Homeland Security’s public claim of more than 600,000 removals. Compared with 2024, when removals were about 285,000, the report notes that 2025 removals were not dramatically higher. Contributing policy changes include suspensions of many humanitarian programs (with a noted exception for white South Africans) and reductions in temporary visas. Report authors anticipate removals could rise in 2026 if additional funding from the administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act is directed toward enforcement, and they project measurable economic consequences.
Why it matters
- A sustained net outflow of people can reduce labor supply and slow economic activity in localities with large immigrant populations.
- Brookings projects a drop in consumer spending of $60 billion to $110 billion across 2025–2026, which could depress GDP and hiring.
- Policy shifts curtailing humanitarian admissions and temporary visas change demographic and workforce composition.
- Increased enforcement funding may further raise removals and prolong the migration decline, with political and legal implications.
Key facts
- Brookings estimates U.S. net migration in 2025 between -295,000 and -10,000.
- The report attributes the negative net migration primarily to a sharp decline in entries and increased enforcement.
- Authors estimate removals in 2025 at about 310,000–315,000; DHS has publicly claimed more than 600,000 removals.
- 2025 removals are only modestly higher than 2024 removals, which the report cites at roughly 285,000.
- Many humanitarian programs were suspended in 2025, with the report noting an exception for white South Africans.
- Temporary visa issuances declined in 2025, contributing to fewer entries.
- Unlike 2024, a larger share of 2025 removals were initiated by U.S. Customs and Border Protection from the interior rather than by ICE.
- Brookings warns additional enforcement funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could enable higher removal levels.
- The report projects consumer spending will fall by $60 billion to $110 billion across 2025 and 2026.
What to watch next
- Net migration figures for 2026 and whether Brookings’ prediction of continued negative flows materializes.
- Implementation and funding details of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and any resulting changes in enforcement capacity.
- Economic indicators in communities with large immigrant populations, including employment, consumer spending, and GDP growth.
- Official removal counts and methodological disclosures from DHS and components (CBP and ICE) to reconcile divergent totals.
Quick glossary
- Net migration: The difference between the number of people entering a country and the number leaving over a given period.
- Removal: The formal process by which an individual is expelled from a country under immigration enforcement procedures.
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP): A federal agency that secures and facilitates international trade and travel, including border enforcement.
- Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE): A federal agency responsible for enforcing immigration laws within the interior of the United States.
- Humanitarian programs: Visa and admission pathways intended to protect or assist people fleeing persecution, conflict, or other crises.
Reader FAQ
What does "negative net migration" mean in this report?
It means more people left or were removed from the U.S. than entered during 2025, according to Brookings’ estimates.
How many removals occurred in 2025?
Brookings estimates about 310,000–315,000 removals in 2025; DHS has publicly claimed a figure exceeding 600,000.
Why did net migration turn negative in 2025?
The report cites a large drop in entries, increased enforcement leading to removals and voluntary departures, suspensions of many humanitarian programs, and fewer temporary visas.
Will negative net migration continue in 2026?
Brookings says continued negative net migration for 2026 is likely, but the exact outcome remains uncertain and depends on policy and funding decisions.
ABC News US, for 1st time in 50 years, experienced negative net migration in 2025: Report The negative number is mostly due to a drop in entries, the report said….
Sources
- US, for first time in 50 years, experienced negative net migration in 2025
- Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 …
- U.S. Experienced Negative Net Migration in 2025 for the …
- US Experienced Negative Net Migration For First Time In 50 …
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