TL;DR
Authors Raj Shah and Christopher Kirchhoff argue that future conflict will increasingly rely on low-cost, mass-produced drones that are difficult to stop, and that the United States is underestimating this shift. They warn that attacks will more likely resemble rapid drone swarms than past large-scale incidents like 9/11 or Oklahoma City.
What happened
In a December 2025 opinion piece, Raj Shah and Christopher Kirchhoff warn that the character of violent attacks and warfare is changing. They suggest that by 2026, adversaries could use affordable, rapidly produced drones operating in swarms to carry out assaults that are fast, noisy only seconds before impact, and hard to counter with current defenses. The authors draw a contrast between iconic past attacks — hijacked airliners or vehicle bombs — and a near-future scenario in which coordinated unmanned systems become the primary vector of mass-casualty or disruptive strikes. Shah and Kirchhoff write from defense-industry experience: Shah is a former director of the Defense Innovation Unit, and Kirchhoff helped establish that organization. Their piece urges a reassessment of U.S. preparedness for unmanned, distributed threats.
Why it matters
- Lower-cost, easily manufactured drones reduce the barriers to entry for destructive actors.
- Swarms of small unmanned systems can saturate or bypass existing air-defense and surveillance setups.
- A shift toward drone-based attacks would alter intelligence, homeland security, and military planning.
- Failure to adapt could leave critical infrastructure and public spaces more vulnerable to rapid, hard-to-detect strikes.
Key facts
- The article was published December 27, 2025, in Wired.
- Authors: Raj Shah and Christopher Kirchhoff.
- Raj Shah previously led the Defense Innovation Unit; Christopher Kirchhoff helped create that unit.
- The piece predicts that by 2026, attacks may begin with the sound of drone rotors seconds before impact.
- The authors characterize future conflicts as leaning on low-cost, quickly produced unmanned systems that are difficult to defend against.
- The article frames this evolution as a departure from past models like the 9/11 hijackings and the Oklahoma City bombing.
- Topics attached to the piece include drones, Russia, UAVs, and national security.
What to watch next
- Increased deployment of small commercial and improvised drone swarms near population centers — not confirmed in the source
- Announcements or policy shifts from U.S. defense and homeland-security agencies addressing swarm threats — not confirmed in the source
- Advances in counter-drone detection and interception technologies or procurement programs — not confirmed in the source
Quick glossary
- Drone: An unmanned aircraft or vehicle operated remotely or autonomously.
- Swarm: A coordinated group of multiple autonomous or remotely piloted systems acting together to achieve a common objective.
- UAV: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle; another term for a drone, typically referring to airborne platforms.
- Counter-drone systems: Technologies and tactics used to detect, track, disable, or destroy hostile unmanned systems.
Reader FAQ
Who wrote the article and what are their backgrounds?
Raj Shah and Christopher Kirchhoff authored the piece. Shah is a former director of the Defense Innovation Unit; Kirchhoff helped create that organization.
Does the article say a drone attack is imminent?
The authors present a near-future scenario for 2026 but do not provide a specific, confirmed timetable for an attack.
Are drones described as inexpensive and easy to produce?
Yes; the piece characterizes future unmanned systems as low-cost and rapidly manufactured.
Does the article list specific policy fixes or programs the U.S. should adopt?
Not confirmed in the source.
RAJ SHAH AND CHRISTOPHER KIRCHHOFF SECURITY DEC 27, 2025 5:00 AM The US Must Stop Underestimating Drone Warfare The future of conflict is cheap, rapidly manufactured, and tough to defend…
Sources
- The US Must Stop Underestimating Drone Warfare
- DHS is Ignoring the Foreign Drone Threat
- Why the US Military Can't Just Shoot Down the Mystery …
- Op-ed: America's drone blind spot and the 9/10 moment we …
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